Asia markets mostly poised to rise ahead of China trade data and Japan pay figures – NBC

This is CNBC’s live blog covering Asia-Pacific markets.

Asia-Pacific markets are mostly set to rise ahead of China’s April trade data, as well as pay statistics from Japan.

Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 1.5% rise in China’s exports, a reversal from the 7.5% fall in March. Imports are also expected to grow 4.8% year-on-year in April, compared with a 1.9% fall in March.

Separately, investors will assess pay statistics from Japan as they look for any signs of the “virtuous cycle” of increasing wages and prices envisioned by the Bank of Japan.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is set to rise, with the futures contract in Chicago at 38,435 and its counterpart in Osaka at 38,380 against the index’s last close of 38,202.37.

Futures for the S&P/ASX 200 also point to a slightly stronger open at 7,806 compared to the last close of 7,804.5.

Futures for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index stood at 18,277, pointing to a weaker open compared to the HSI’s close of 18,313.86.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its winning streak to six days, as investors shook off some weakness in tech.

The Dow added 0.44% and notched its longest stretch of positive days in 2024. The S&P 500 inched lower and closed near the flatline, while the Nasdaq Composite pulled back by 0.18%.

Investors are also digesting a slew of Federal Reserve commentary. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in remarks on Wednesday that the Fed’s interest rate policy will likely need to remain at its current level until inflation is moving “sustainably” toward the central bank’s 2% target.

— CNBC’s Pia Singh and Alex Harring contributed to this report.

UBS says investors should ‘stay vigilant’ amid global uncertainties and diversify across asset classes

Several risks could still affect the market’s momentum, according to UBS.

“While we continue to see a constructive macro backdrop for risk assets, investors should stay vigilant on a range of economic and geopolitical risks that could send market volatility back up again,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer for the firm’s global wealth management.

Haefele pointed out that despite the recent gains in U.S. equities, including the S&P 500 having recorded its best four-day rally since November on the back of positive Fed speak, several concerns remain that could risk oil prices and increase investor concerns. Those include the ongoing uncertainty of a cease-fire deal in Gaza, a potentially “vulnerable” disinflation trend and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

“With markets oscillating between pricing different scenarios, asset class volatility could remain elevated. Investors can mitigate such volatility and keep their portfolios on track by diversifying and balancing across asset classes,” the investment head said in the Wednesday note, adding that quality bonds in a portfolio, and oil and gold for portfolio hedges, are attractive plays for investors in this environment.

— Pia Singh

U.S. crude oil recovers losses after surprise stockpile decline

Crude oil futures rose Wednesday, recovering losses from earlier in the session as U.S. crude inventories fell.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for June rose 61 cents, or 0.78%, to settle at $78.99 a barrel. The Brent contract for July was last trading at $83.75 a barrel, up 59 cents, or 0.72%.

Oil was down more than 1% earlier in the session, after U.S. commercial crude stockpiles declined by 1.4 million barrels in the first week of May, according to official data from the Energy Information Administration. The decline was a surprise compared to industry data that indicated a 509,000 barrel buildup.

Oil prices have fallen nearly 7% since reaching their April highs when traders bid up prices on fears that Iran and Israel would go to war. Investors have largely sold off the war premium since then, with Morgan Stanley removing $4 per barrel of risk from its oil price forecast for the year.

— Spencer Kimball

Fed’s Collins wants more confidence that inflation is receding before cutting

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Wednesday that it is likely to take longer than expected to get inflation back down to the central bank’s goal, but noted that policymakers should be wary not to wait too long to start normalizing interest rates.

“The recent upward surprises to activity and inflation suggest the likely need to keep policy at its current level until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” Collins said in remarks at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

As she examines the conditions that will need to fall into place before cutting, Collins said she is focused on inflation expectations, more signs of disinflation, signals from wages and moderation in the labor market.

“The current situation requires methodical perseverance, recognizing that progress will take time and continue to be uneven. Expecting all indicators to be well-aligned is too high a bar to start normalizing policy,” Collins added.

Current Fed policy is “well-positioned” as the various pieces of information develop, she said.

— Jeff Cox